Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Niall Ferguson Discusses Euro-Crisis, the Failure of the Euro, and the Chance of a Chinese Rescue.

Niall Ferguson labels the Euro as a "terrible idea," but one which now has to be saved out of necessity.

In a recent CBC interview, Ferguson notes that the continent's leaders have a deplorable understanding of what is needed to fix the crisis, and that they have made far too many mistakes already to expect that much will come of their efforts this week. Also, he notes that since there is no formal procedure to dismantle the monetary union, there would be inevitable chaos should it unwind. Thus, Germany and France have largely been left holding the bag on the debts of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland... and maybe more to come.

He also says that he can imagine a situation where the Euro-Crisis becomes so bad that the United Kingdom, not a current member of the monetary union, could leave the EU altogether.

Some experts believe that China might come in to save the day, but Ferguson claims that the country is so risk-adverse and afraid of being embarrassed by failure, that they will act very lightly, if noticeably at all.  

Wal-Mart and Foreign Retail Barred from India. Foreign Direct Investment Stalled. Is this Best for the Population?

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and other multinational retailers have been forced to wait even longer to enter the Indian marketplace.

Just last month, the Indian government announced plans to allow foreign retailers the option to own up to 51 percent of local supermarkets in major cities. This was seen by foreign companies as a positive sign of further international growth opportunities in the midst of slowing business and consumer activity in their home markets.

The government initially believed that more foreign competition and investment would result in lower prices for consumers and increased investment in infrastructure development in the country. However, government opposition parties and protesters declared that the expansion of foreign retailers in India would hurt small business and independent family owned retailers.

With the Indian economy slowing, and foreign direct investment in the country declining, many observers have suggested that India needs more foreign capital in order to help rectify a current account deficit.

To be sure, the Indian economy might benefit from increased levels of foreign direct investment, but there is definitely something positive to be drawn from the fact that Indian lawmakers are actually considering whether or not foreign domination of the retail sector will actually be the best thing for the local populations.

Monday, December 5, 2011

BlackBerry Bold 9790 Launch Causes Frenzy in Indonesia. Dozens are Injured... Brand is Exploding in the Developing World.

Dozens of Research in Motion customers were injured as more than 5,000 people line-up and stampede for the chance to buy a BlackBerry Bold 9790 in Jakarta, Indonesia.

The $540 phones were being sold at half-price to the first 1,000 customers, which caused a shopping frenzy. Indonesia is a country of over 240 million people and the BlackBerry is the hottest and most popular smart phone in the country. Its BBM, or BlackBerry Messenger service, is increasing in popularity and currently has 6 million users in the developing nation.

Clearly, though BlackBerry is under heavy pressure in North America and Europe as Apple and Android steal market-share, Research in Motion is doing very well in developing nations. Latin America and Asia are keen adopters of the BlackBerry, and the shopping frenzy, though causing some bad press for RIM management overseas, is a clear sign of a vibrant market and business for the company.

(Full Disclosure: Matthew J.W. Clarke owns or indirectly controls shares in Research in Motion TSE: RIM).

Friday, December 2, 2011

Research in Motion (RIM) Will Fail to Meet Year-End Guidance. Large PlayBook Writedown Costs the Firm Millions.

Research in Motion (RIM), dips below $17 U.S. per share in pre-market trading on the Nasdaq. The company has announced that it will be forced to take a $485 million write-down on the sale of over 150,000 PlayBook tablets and their inventories. It no longer expects to hit its full-year guidance of $5.25 - $6.00, but will still be profitable.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rim-to-miss-targets-take-playbook-hit/article2257745/

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Loblaws Opens at Maple Leaf Gardens.

Maple Leaf Gardens has re-opened this week. Loblaw Companies Ltd. has developed a flagship supermarket to take advantage of the historic nature and appeal of Toronto's iconic hockey arena.

The store is 85,000 square feet and has an impressive array of choices. There is a 2,000 square foot kitchen, and ACE Bakeries, recently acquired by Loblaw (TSE: L), has an in-house factory to ensure everything is fresh and readily available.

Monuments to the Gardens and historic moments include tributes to The Beatles, Winston Churchill, Wayne Gretzky, Elvis Presley, and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The company states that they are not sure where they are going next, but this type of conversion is something that they might complete again in another city. To be sure, it is very good press.

Warren Buffet Highlights 7 Stocks for Investment Potential. Two Stocks Stand Out as Different from the Others.

Warren Buffet has highlighted 7 stocks in the last quarter as good investments in the current market climate. Of the 7 stocks, 2 represent substantial departures from his previous investment discipline.

1. Buffet recently acquired over 32 million shares of IBM. Such a large investment in a technology company is a first for Mr. Buffet, who generally sticks to bread and butter stocks like with little need for increased levels of research and development. The prime example here is his long-running, and very successful investment in Coca-Cola.

Buffet's investment in IBM is centred around the fact that IBM generates a lion's share of its revenues from repeat and subscription based maintenance and service contracts. IBM has shed its consumer business (hence the advent of Lenovo laptops in North America), and decided to concentrate on corporate clients that sign long service contracts and are often less fickle to changes in technological trends or fashion.

Buffet has also purchased over 9 million shares of Intel. This stock has a great dividend, high cash flow generation, and excellent prospects in the growth of its server business. Intel's revenue increased 19% last quarter, which is evidence to the company's ability to execute well for shareholders in a difficult economic climate.

Full Disclosure: Matthew J.W. Clarke owns or indirectly controls shares in Intel (INTC).

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Teachers Pension Plan Cancels Sale of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment. Bell and Rogers Dispute Over Media Rights. Leafs, Raptors, Marlies, and the FC are Cash Cows for Fund.

The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan has called off its sale of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (MLSE). The asset has been a cash cow for the Teachers and after elongated talks with Bell and Rogers broke down, the Pension Plan has decided it is in its best interests to maintain its majority stake.

MLSE currently owns the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Toronto Raptors, the Toronto Marlies, the Toronto FC, and the Air Canada Centre. With the Leafs alone valued at over $500 million, the Teachers were hoping to fetch somewhere between $1.4 and $1.8 billion for their 80% stake in the regional sports powerhouse.

Why the talks to sell the company broke down is uncertain. Some say that Bell and Rogers could not agree on the media rights for the company, but others say that the price the Teachers wanted was simply too high. MLSE, however, it reported to generate approximately $650 million in revenue annually, making it a substantial enterprise for the pension fund, which will need more and more cash as aging teachers start collecting their benefits.

Potentially, the Teachers will probably keep their search for a buyer below the radar for awhile, until the plan needs to liquidate some holdings in the future to pay more retirees. So MLSE is off the block for now, but undoubtedly its sale will resurface as a news item again soon.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Tim Hortons Profits Soar to $103.6 Million in Quarter. McDonald's Pressure not Hurting Bottom Line. New Tim Hortons Lattes Will Ensure Margin Improvement.

This month, Canada's Tim Hortons reported that profits for the third quarter soared over 40% compared to last year. For the three month period Tim Hortons earned $103.6 million, well ahead of the $73 million earned last year. This was much better than many analysts had expected, and a clear sign that Tims is on the right track when it comes to new menu introductions and store expansions.

Also this year Tim Hortons announced that it is set to open 120 restaurants in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman over the next five years. A clear indication that the company is primed for international expansion beyond the United States of America.

Much of the growth over the last quarter was from the sale of its bakery unit, which sold for a whopping $475 million. But other positive signs were its same store sales growth, and the increased prospect of a substantial share buyback with the new cash infusion into the company.

Though there is increased competitive pressure from McDonald's and its aggressive expansion into the coffee business in Canada, Tim Hortons is weathering the battle very well, and even perhaps benefiting from an increased overall market for higher priced lattes now in the lineup.

Shoppers Drug Mart Earnings Keep Investors Happy. New Opportunity With Zellers Closing.

Canada's Shoppers Drug Mart (TSE: SC) could be primed for a nice growth opportunity following the closure of Zellers' pharmacies in 2012. Though Target has announced plans to open its own pharmacies in 2013 once it begins expanding into Zellers' locations, the hiatus will give Shoppers and other pharmacies, including Rexall, some time to either poach or purchase the current client files.

Shoppers also recently announced an increase in overall sales of 2.1% over the third quarter of last year, and a rise in net earnings of 5%. Good news for investors who have been worried about earnings deflation in the prescription drug category due to new legislation in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia that have limited generic drug prices to 25% of the patented version.

Shoppers shares are up almost 12% in the last year and well ahead of an overall market, which is down 12%.

Full Disclosure: (Matthew Clarke currently owns or indirectly control shares in Shoppers Drug Mart).

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Consumers’ financial literacy a key focus for Ottawa: Flaherty - The Globe and Mail

Consumers’ financial literacy a key focus for Ottawa: Flaherty - The Globe and Mail:

"The $5-million task force, headed by Sun Life Financial chief executive officer Donald Stewart, is charged with developing Canada's first national strategy to improve financial awareness.

After embarking on a cross-country tour, the task force released a report earlier this year that contained 30 recommendations on how to improve financial literacy. It said education, starting as early as elementary school, is the best way to sow the seeds of knowledge and skills Canadians need to save, invest, buy homes and plan for retirement later in life.

Other initiatives it recommended include the establishment of dedicated national leader on literacy, and that Ottawa create a one-stop website where Canadians can obtain information on everything from mortgages to retirement planning.

Financial literacy is usually defined as a combination of knowledge of financial matters and numerical skills, such as an understanding compound interest, as well as having the ability to put those skills into practice in making financial decisions."

Hopefully the federal and provincial governments follow-up on this idea with a concerted effort to actually make financial literacy courses mandatory in high-schools. The fact that Shakespeare, the Boer War, and an understanding of quadratic equations is mandatory, but consumer lending and banking is not is a key reason why our population is steering itself toward the financial abyss. Lobby your MPP's, MP's, and School Boards, and the Minister of Education to help this country get its act together. An uneducated populace is easily duped by middlemen and financiers.